Israel's Druze support Israel's wariness in being drawn by their Syrian bretheren into the quagmire

The question of the Syrian Druze recently climbed to the top of Israel's priorities, eclipsing
even the ongoing disastrous handling by Obama and European powers of Iran's race for nuclear weapons (As I write this US Secretary of State Kerry is doing his best to paint his 'Peace in Our Time' surrender as not being a done deal, that the USA will supposedly walk away from a bad deal with Iran. But most of the major concessions have been made already from not insisting that Iran owns up to allowing it to use new and ever faster uranium processing centrifuges, ignoring past work on nuclear weapons development and not demanding snap inspections of suspected Iranian nuclear installations and military bases).

Israelis are rightly worried that our blood brothers the Druze in Israel should not see their kith and kin wiped out in an islamist genocide next door in Syria.

Some normally level headed researchers such as Mordechai Kedar have however demanded that Israel drop its neutrality vis-a-vis Syria and actively intervene to establish a new order in that country along Israel's border a policy that although undoubtedly well intentioned is fraught with danger.

Two years ago before the recent crisis I saw the need for Israel to become more involved in helping the Druze take the future into their own hands.

This does not mean however that Israel should simply march into Syria and carve out the Druze homeland for them as Mr Kedar seems to be implying.

“Israel must, and I repeat, must, do everything and even beyond everything, to help the Druze minority in Syria survive as it faces the Islamist forces who intend to destroy it. ”

Israel must learn the lessons of its history, not least of its having been sucked into Lebanon in 1982 by Christians who promised an alliance and armed help to Israel in ending the reign of terror by the PLO in that country. Israel was however betrayed by the phalangists who after pulling Israel in let Israel do their dirty work, and the dying. The only time the phalangists emerged out of the woodwork was to commit a revenge massacre in Sabra and Shatila, and then let Israel take the world's opprobrium.

Just as the Christians of Lebanon were no friends to Israel, and had no strategic sense in betraying the one democracy that would ensure their own survival, the Druze of Syria are not friends of Israel, but rather bitter enemies. Druze in Syria have loyally staffed the Assad regime's army and committed or attempted to commit terror atrocities against Israel even as late as this present  year 2015.

We must remember that Samir Kuntar the heinous child murderer who first killed a 3 year old girl's parents in front of her and then bashed her head on a rock is a druze. Now a senior Hezbollah official he is a welcome guest amongst the Syrian Druze and has recently been active organizing Hezbollah's second front against Israel on the Golan Heights. Kuntar's fingerprints are believed to also bee all over the Druze ambulance attack in Israel.

Early this year Israel managed to eliminate a Druze terror squad attempting to lay an ambush for IDF soldiers along Israel's Golan border.

The writing might be on the wall for Syrian Druze but this tight knit community has as yet not been reading the script. The Syrian Druze are still very much in the pocket of Assad and whether or not they are ready to change is a moot point.

Assad is desperate for Israel to become involved in his conflict to act as a lighting rod for his regime. Once Israel were to invade the jihadist groups would unite and attack the IDF giving Assad a much needed reprieve.

And this is very probably the reason for the Druze attack on an Israeli ambulance in which an injured Syrian rebel being transferred for treatment in an Israeli hospital was murdered. This attack was made not so much by irate Druze on rebels who had just committed a massacre of their people, but as a Syrian-Iranian operation to  undermine the Israeli-Druze alliance and enmesh Israel in the Syrian quagmire.

Those rebel injured that Israel treats in its hospitals are indeed the coin Israel pays for keeping the al-Nusra knives off the Druze throats.

Druze murdering rebels being treated in Israel would be a sure way for organized rebel attacks on Druze villages to begin. Despite some sporadic forced conversions to islam and a massacre (that al Nusrah apologized for) the Druze are not yet in imminent danger.

Assad is not interested in the welfare of the Druze but in harming Israel and in his Alawite Shia survival which is becoming questionable in light of the continuing collapse of the Syrian army and the never ending cost in SAA, Hezbollah and IRGC lives. Iran has lost two generals this year in Syria, one of them held the highest army rank, and the Syrian army is believed to have all but disintegrated. Iran and Hezbollah have had to pick up the slack and are dying in the process.

By maintaining its neutrality in the Syrian conflict whilst enforcing its red lines, Israel has so far managed to keep the Golan border quiet and the Syrian Druze safe.

We don't know how long this will continue but when the Syrian Druze finally realize that they have no future allied to Assad, then will be the time for Israel to act in helping the Druze establish a redoubt along Israel's border and establish a militia along the lines of the former South Lebanon Army.

The quid pro quo would be for Druze of the former Syria to renounce their former ties and ally themselves with Israel by joining the blood covenant of their brother Druze in israel. This will be a major psychological hurdle to overcome, and Israel should not intervene further to help Syrian Druze until this happens.
The time for this not yet come. Druze are still loyal to Assad.

The biggest sign that the Netanyahu government is following a judicious policy is that Israel's Druze community refuses to be drawn into Assad's plan, does not ask for any Israeli intervention in Syria on behalf of their bretheren. The Israeli Druze leaders are fully supportive of the present government policy.

“The leader of the Druze community in Israel, Sheikh Moafaq Tarif, strongly denounced the attack.
“Of course we condemned everything that happened. Our tradition and religion are against harming an injured person or an ambulance. This is not our way, not our education… and we hope you will continue to lead this whole affair wisely. We are at your service,” Tarif said.”

“Ayoub Kara, deputy minister of regional development and a Druze, said all Israelis identify with the concerns over the danger faced by Druze in Syria, but there was no excuse for attacking the ambulance.

“To my regret, we as Druze lost Israel’s sympathy because of this grave and unnecessary attack, which has no place in a country ruled by the law,” Kara said.”

Israel is proceeding wisely in for the present must maintaining its hands off policy in Syria and not allowing Assad and his Iranian backers to have Israel save them from the plight they are now facing.

The loyal Druze of Israel refuse to be used as tools by Assad and Syrian Druze for their nefarious ends.
Nonetheless Israel will continue to protect the Syrian Druze even as it is fully cognizant of their continuing attempts to harm the Jewish State.

Netanyahu is no fool and refuses to be drawn into the Syrian quagmire in order to save Assad's neck. That is what Iran is there for and it will be to Iran and its catspaw Hezbollah that the Alawites need to look for help.

They say (ISIS) the Caliphate is on the rise in Iraq & Syria, not such bad news

The time might be approaching when the loss will be reversed

The middle east never ceases to amaze. The arab ISIS assassins gave a swift kick at Mosul and the whole rotten Iraqi edifice came crumbling down. General Petreaus' much vaunted military wonder at Falujah is shown to be the smoke and mirrors that it always was. ISIS now commands Falujah with it's own peculiar way of winning hearts and minds, through sheer terror and decapitation.

Years of American lives and US money are now as nothing. Obama ever the idiot is now readying the US to send in more money, support and eventually waste even more American lives in the service of Iran. Because Iraq is the fiefdom of Iran in the areas ruled by the shiah and far be it from Obama to let his new buddies in Iran take a pasting ( let's not worry about Obama. Whatever he touches turns to dust in the end, and he'll be gone soon in any case).

Iran can not afford to lose Iraq as it is the major supply route to Assad and to Hezbollah. And in any case Iran doesn't want ISIS on its border with Iraq so Iran will fight for Iraq with or without US help. But with trillions of dollars of debt, the US like every good gambler is happy to throw some more money away in the forlorn hope things will improve.

All this is as nothing to the Obama's national security team, unless he's simply ignoring their advice. In Obama's rush to destroy US credibility throughout the world, what better policy than to engender more Taliban style killings of US troops, sent to the battlefield and being virtually forbidden from opening fire in their defense. Which reminds me, Israeli troops are mighty sick of the same thing. And if you are a Jewish inhabitant of Judea and Samaria forget about ever using your gun. You will be arrested by Israeli police, your gun taken away, and no end of further proceedings taken against you.

This is Israel today where it's better to have a soldier hurt than for him to defend himself. David the Nahlai recently gained much support in Israel after his drawing his weapon was believed to have led to his punishment (It wasn't the reason in this case but IDF soldiers have had so much of this policy of 'havlagah' or 'restraint', as now a bad policy in the 1930's which led not to less attacks, but more and intensified ones against Jews. Orde Wingate changed the policy and the desperate situation of the kibbutzim with his offensive Night Squads. They lay in wait outside arab villages and when the terrorists emerged to shoot up and burn Jewish villages they were themselves destroyed. The British new it in the 1930's, the Jews won the 1948 war by defending themselves actively, but now Jewish soldiers need to be social workers protecting the interests of their enemies ).

So okay lets get to Chief of Staff Gantz. Now you would expect him to have a certain relief that his neighbours to the north and east are somewhat embroiled at the moment. Not a chance:

Gantz says conflict in Syria could continue for more than a decade; warns that both Hezbollah and World Jihad gaining strength in Syria.

Israeli generals as their politicians have little strategic horizon, so Gantz of course doesn't understand that the first part of his sentence necessarily contradicts the latter half. If the war goes on for a decade neither Hezbollah, Iran, the sunni al Qaida gangs or anyone else will be in much position to take on Israel. And in that time Israel will have relative peace, as long as it keeps its defense posture secure.

The present Israeli Defense Minister is thankfully on the ball unlike effete Barak and that labor union guy before him. Whereas Barak during the second intifada and afterwards, was nonchalant about Jews being slaughtered by suicide bombers, for Sderot and the south of Israel to get hammered year after year, Ya'alon made it clear the rules have changed. 

So the rockets still come but not every shabbat morning in time for synagogue service and shabbat lunch, not every day when the kids are walking to and from school. Yes the terrorists know Israel's timetable exactly and used to time the rockets accordingly. Sometimes that helped locate and destroy the rocket squads . Things are now very much better in the south. Ya'alon understands that in this region, the only way you get peace is not by smiling and giving away your silver, but by carrying a cosh and grimacing at your enemy.

And Ya'alon fits in with the Israeli street now. Apart from the usual feeble minds which along with Nobel prizes, Jews seem to be endowed with in larger numbers than is their fair share, Israelis understand that to show weakness to arabs, to free murderers for nothing, as 'gestures', is to invite further attack.

And that attack has come with the kidnapping of the yeshivah students. May God grant them a quick and safe return. Of course the lower level attacks nowadays are counted in the hundreds each month, and collated in the monthly Low IntensityConflict Report.

Until Israel was tested in the 1^st Intifada and found wanting, there were virtually no attacks on Jews in Judea and Samaria. The fear of 1948 and 1967 was still in their minds. I know because I travelled all over the area during part of that time. Then the human rights era started and palestinians were allowed to attack Israeli soldiers for the benefit of the cameras on a daily basis. This undermined Israel's reputation for robustness with the arabs as regards deterrence, and with the rest of the world with regards Israel's respect of human rights. 

With all the cameras, the odd lapse by a soldier instantly got, and gets beamed around the world. Rather than be seen for what it is, a human rights respecting bastion, Israel is besmirched as an apartheid state with impunity, and there's the pallywood filming in abundance to 'prove' it.

Some time soon people will begin to wake up because the never ending violence coming out of arab countries is getting intense, it will be all but impossible even for the most misled to ignore the fact that Israel is not the problem, but the arab, and those darlings known as 'Balestinians' ( pronounced the arab way, as they can not pronounce the 'P'. Fancy that, a 'people' who can't even utter the name of their own country properly. Something fishy there to start with).

Our poor:

IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz said Monday that only a handful of states have more firepower than Hezbollah.

Okay the man has sleepless nights and does a magnificent job showing the al Nusrah types and shia on the borders that when they mortar Israel it's no longer forgive and forget like in the 1950's all the way up to 1967. If they mortar Israeli communities they get a Tammuz missile up the tochos about 5 minutes later, or less. And lo and behold, rather than this becoming a 'cycle of violence' as the european fools like to berate Israel, the Syrian border is mostly quiet. A little education goes a long way in this region.

But the General is clearly worried:

Speaking at the Herzliya Conference at the Interdisciplinary Center, Gantz said, "Show me four or five states with more firepower than Hezbollah: the US, China, Russia, Israel, France, the UK."

Okay, but they need all that firepower to protect Israel. Sorry? Come again? PROTECT Israel? Yes. 

Without Hezbollah and all its weaponry on the borders of Syria and Lebanon the sunni jihadis would be able to munch their sandwiches opposite the guard post at Rosh Haniqra whilst taking the odd pot shot, at point blank range.

The Chief worries too much about the firepower of Hezbollah and all the training it is getting in the field. Hezbollah are shi as in Iran, Assad's gang of Alawites and Maliki's domain of Baghdad. They are but a tenth the size of the sunni world, and if only they weren't such fanatical believers in the second coming of the Mahdi, they'd be buying their houses in Park Lane and Paris, just in case.

As it is they have to make do with renting houses in Thailand, Argentina and Bulgaria, but I digress, as that's for wholly different purposes.

Going from a stable shia ruled Syria two years ago that could put around a thousand tanks into Israel in a future war, Allah forbid, Iran now is fighting a war in Syria and now Iraq. Hezbollah has lost around 500 men so far in Syria. 

It's not so much fun to lose around 10% of your men on the battlefield (including top commanders of Hezbollah and the IRGC), and to know that there is not only no end in sight, but that there's so far not been so much as a peep from the Mahdi to say when he's gonna come and finish of those Jews and infidel apostate sunni muslims.

Of course Hezbollah is busy training up thousands of replacements, and so are the sunni jihadists, and so the party is getting bigger and better, and the carnage is set to increase exponentially.

And so:

Gantz said that Syria was falling apart "like a house of cards," and no outcome was good for Israel.

Sorry old boy. Just hold onto your hat, steady your nerve and get ready for the ride. You might even have just a little faith in the good Lord who has sent miracle upon miracle to the benefit of a state that otherwise could never have even got off the ground in 1948. If Christy Anastas can believe with her somewhat garbled understanding of our history that the survival of Israel is part of God's intention, for the world, “a Covenant“ , then you can surely afford to relax a little.

ISIS has been braying in the last few days about their caliphate coming to fruition, and however much Obama might move to help them, they are going to have a long hard slog, just as was predicted

here

The rock of Iran (and its ally Assad and proxy Hezbollah) has hit the hard sunni world, a world unforgiving of those they see as apostates threatening their very regimes.  A world full of extremist madrassas with students just longing to become involved in the fight against the shia 'heretics', as they see them.

The USA and Russia should sit this one out as it has little to do with them, and much to do with islam.
But the USA and Russia will not sit on the sidelines, more pity for the region, and also for Israel, although it might continue to be spared direct involvement.

Israel has been the wisest actor in the region, keeping its cool, growling menacingly and acting firmly when its interests are threatened or missiles, mortars or even bullets come over the border on the Golan Heights. Hamas learned last November that the rules have changed, that Israel will no longer tolerate its border communities being terrorized

The carnage we have seen this week is as nothing to what is about to happen, and whilst it does Amalek will be steadily weakened so that Israel will  hopefully have peace for a generation, quite a lot for us Jews.

All General Gantz needs to do is pick the time he bombs Iran's nuclear installations. God expects us to help ourselves to some extent, and Israel might need to clear Hezbollah from south Lebanon and allow its hostile population to escape the fighting, if Hezbollah does indeed attack Israel. If so, the most foolhardy thing to do would be to allow the shia civilian population back into the border after the inevitable ceasefire to start things up again.

If Israel is attacked, then in its defense it will be entitled to extend its borders up to the Litani river, an ancient border of Israel, and a natural defense line. The line could then be settled with Jews or any mix of loyal allies such as Christians and druze. Even Walid Jumblatt who humbled himself with such bad timing before Assad, the son of his father's murderer, even Jumblatt is very possibly asking himself if a lifetime's hostility to Israel has been a mistake. Sandwhched between sunni and shia violence, Jumblatt will himself begin to feel the heat before long.

We must learn from Russia, that if you attack us, we will not give you anything other than a bloody nose, and we'll also take back our ancient lands as compensation. A growing population means there will never be a problem settling and defending the new borders.

So things are not half bad for Israel with a strong economy, a strong army and an ever increasing and young population. All that is needed is a little faith.

Would the Syrian Druze like a place they can call home? It is time for Israel to help them achieve it

Druze soldier of the Herev Battalion wrapped in the Israeli flag

The Kurds have made it big out of the mess that is Syria. Syria it should be remembered was the unlikeliest of states having so many different ethnicities contained within it. In the middle east identifiable ethnic groups like to assert themselves where they can, or go to the wall. That Syria was a secular baathist state was in no small measure due to a minority alawite military caste holding the reigns of power. They knew that they needed a large measure of consensus in order to rule the country.

The consensus however did not extend to having a democratic system. In the middle east, as we have so clearly seen recently, democracy does not mean opportunities for all, but oppression by whichever majority rules. The Muslim Brotherhood carried out its oppression against secular and christian society just a little too fast for the liking of the army, and once the people spoke, took back the state. In Turkey where the islamists were more clever, the army was slowly neutralized as a threat before Erdogan began to move in earnest, in a way that could be instantly felt, against the majority population. Even then, with the Gezi protests Erdogan has had some  pushback.

In Syria once the people spoke, Bashir Assad attempted to use the old methods to suppress popular discontent, killings and arrests and disappearences. That did not help and now we have a country that is not a country any more. The Kurds in the north east have carved out their own independence in league with Iraqi Kurds, and the shia and sunni alliances are slogging it out.

Druze communities on Golan and in Syria need to unite into one enclave to resist militant islam, ensuring their survival against militant islam, and Israel's security

The Druze are a minority sitting astride Israel's border with Syria on the Golan heights, who until now gave their allegiance to the Assad regime, as did most of the Golan Druze. But now there must be those in the Druze community who would be only too receptive to being part of a wider alliance with Israel. The Druze can not but see just how unstable the arab world is, how well their bretheren who are loyal to Israel fare, and who will be open to some sort of alliance with Israel.

There is no need for Israel to ever set foot over into Syria, but if the Druze organize themselves with the help of Israeli druze, declare their own independence, then it will be a win-win situation for the Druze and Israel.
Israeli Druze are amongst Israel's fiercest soldiers who defend the border with Lebanon, who make up most of the Herev battalion.

The Druze should be offered help by Israel to carve out their own enclave on the border of Israel. This will have the advantage for Israel of making it even harder for arabs to try salami slicing of Israel on the Golan Heights at a future date. There will be an independent druze enclave in the way of this. For the druze, they will not be subject to the whims of a future islamic state, whether shia or sunni. Neither sunnis or shia will tolerate the druze in their future state, a community who they see as apostates who left islam, with the only punishment for that being death.

Israel might not want to involve itself in Syria, but there is now an opportunity to ensure its security in the  north with just the lightest of involvement, of guaranteeing that Israel will not again involve itself in negotiations designed to snatch essential territory away from Israel, and of giving a secure base from which the druze can organize themselves.

Instead of waiting for one side or the other to win in Syria Israel should make clear this new vision for the druze areas, work to break down the distrust between it and druze communities who fear being cast loose by Israel one day in a 'peace agreement'. Israel must make known that peace agreements will never again involve sacrificing lands.

Allowing a druze enclave to arise will be democratic Israel's contribution to mitigating the horror that is Syria. It will prevent the coming destruction of the druze community there, whilst at the same time ensure Israel's own security, before the islamist terror against Israel's Golan community begins.

Because neither side in Syria makes any secret that after they win, Israel is next.