Wednesday, 20 February 2013

Syria and Iran the good news and the bad

The bad news is that europe and the US still haven't a clue about Iran. If they think Iran can be bribed away from its race for the bomb they are living in cloud cuckoo land. Whilst europe talks and begs, Iran will continue to whisper sweet nothings, all the while increasing its stockpiles of enriched uranium. 

Of course Iran will not be quizzed too hard about why its scientists were present at North Korea's nuclear test of a miniature device last week. It was capable of being mounted on a ballistic missile.
Of course Obama and his european allies have never heard of 'taqiya' (islamic concept of lying to your enemy to deceive him), so Khameini's assurances that there is a fatwa against muslims making a nuclear device along with other small concessions, will serve to assuage them somewhat. Iran has to be prepared to make some small gestures though, something Ahmadinejad has not been always interested in doing.

As regards a nuclear weapon being 'unislamic',Pakistan's developing an 'islamic' bomb doesn't seem to have been a problem in that godless nation of sunnis. Iranians would never develop such an evil weapon. Their interest in miniaturizing warheads is obviously purely academic.

If Israel can't achieve it any other way, it will have to attack Iran. The EMP route would seem the best, using a technically nuclear weapon, but with the ability to fry Iran's electrics for no human cost. It is surely getting very late in the day, and Israel must look to its security. Sending Iran back to the stone age is a small price to pay for avoiding war and the loss of israeli and iranian lives. Iranians are among the most cultured and educated of people in the region, and anything which will spare their lives must surely be a good thing.

Israel is however waiting too long. Iran will drag the europeans out so long that by the time they realize they've been had, the wiley iranians will have cooked up the next plan to keep the West on the hook, all the whilst increasing those stocks of uranium.

With Israel's defensive rocket systems, Iran can't do much harm to Israel, especially now Iran and Hezbollah are so heavily committed in Syria. The time is getting ripe. Israel must not leave it too late to act.

The good news is that Iran and its sidekick Hezbollah are getting ever deeper into the Syrian quagmire. They have bitten off a lot more than they want to chew, and i'm of the opinion that Hezbollah has signed its death warrant with its bombarding of sunni villages in Syria in the last year.

Increasingly iranians and hezbollah operatives are dying and being buried in secret ceremonies. It is too soon to know if the figure of a thousand dead hezbollah this last year is true but what is certain though is that the hatred of Hezbollah has now reached the point of no return. The Syrian rebels, sunnis and assorted sunni jihadists are not friends with the shia at the best of times, and when they are having missiles fired at them as if they are jews in Sderot? Unlike jews, sunni jihadist terrorists are none to patient, or discriminating in their response. If I was a lebanese shia, or an alawite I would be quaking at the hatred the Assad regime has stacked up in the last couple of years.

Israel might not have such a quiet Syrian border any more, but it will find that the Hezbollah threat will decrease and quite possibly fade away altogether in coming years. It's  time to put out feelers to Nabih Berri and Amal who might just be more accommodating once Israel has settled a few scores with Nasrallah (unless the Syrian sunni rebels get to him first).

Syria, not just the Assad regime is now in terminal decline, being no longer an effective state which can control its borders. Russia and Iran are fighting a lost battle for their ally.

It's time for Israel to plan for Hezbollah's collapse and even for advancing a buffer zone up to the natural border of the Litani river by agreement with future christian or even amal shia allies. This might happen in the wake of civil war breaking out in Lebanon.

Israel must be prepared to seek alliances with the kurds, of christians and indeed any other strategically placed group that reads the omens.

Wouldn't it be ironic if the alawites faced with global jihad came knocking at Israel's door?  Now that's an interesting thought. A post Nasrallah Hezbollah cut off from the Iranian hinterland by a sunni jihadist bloc, faced with destruction might even, allied with alawites, form the northern buffer protecting Israel.

All this whilst remembering that no alliances in the middle east last very long. Alliances get drawn and redrawn at the drop of a hat. Russia learned that fact in the 1970's in Egypt, and Israel learned it with the christians in the 80's in Lebanon. Present allies can become enemies in minutes, so it's wise not to invest too much in any one relationship. New friends must be happy just that you are not working actively against them, happy for whatever support is thrown their way, certainly not the loving bearhug americans give to every jihadist group willing to open up its grubby paws. But the US never learns the lesson, and ambassador Stephens will soon be forgotten as the US trains and supplies even  more jihadist terrorists via the cia and Turkey.

It's too hard to see how the dice will fall in the region, but Israel must be prepared to think laterally, to be prepared to entertain any proposals any alliances that offer even short term security along its borders.

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