Whatever the case, no sides hold any love for Israel. Whoever wins
this civil war will aim their guns at Israel should they get the
opportunity. The only problem is that Syria is now the fault line for
the Shia-Sunni conflict. The sunnis supported by the USA can not afford
to lose this war, and neither can Iran supported by Iraq, Russia and
China. The sides will fight to a bloody standstill. Lebanon will not
remain inviolate. There is a reckoning to be had with Hezbollah which is
shia and has actively interfered to prop up Assad.
I also said that:
The sides will fight to a bloody standstill. Lebanon will not remain
inviolate. There is a reckoning to be had with Hezbollah which is shia
and has actively interfered to prop up Assad.
Little did I know a few weeks ago that Hezbollah is nightly pasting the sunni villages just over the border in Lebanon with hundreds of rockets. Who would have thought that all those iranian supplied rockets could have a purpose other than the indiscriminate murder of Israeli civilians in Israel's cities?
The most important things that Israel could have done, it has done. It has trained incessantly since 2006, has improved its positions where needed, has warned the warring parties in no uncertain terms that if they attack Israel they will pay extremely heavily, and most importantly Israel has kept its fingers well clear of this poisoned chalice.
Those who like Jonathan Spyer and the Elder of Ziyon who have called for Israel or the West to invervene to support the FSA are wrong. There is nothing to be gained by actively intervening to helping one or other of the opposing sides, (even whilst Obama's USA is helping the islamists with training, funds and weapons via Turkey and Qatar).
The Elder says:
While defeating Iranian-backed Assad should still be the priority, the
longer that his fall is delayed makes it more likely that the Syrian
revolution will be completely hijacked by Islamists - and not even
Muslim Brotherhood-type Islamists, but Al Qaeda terrorists.
And their goal is not just to take over Syria, but the entire Middle East.
The West has bungled Syria, badly, and things are only getting worse because of the endless foot-dragging.
The West should keep out, must keep out, and whilst Russia is supporting Assad, can do no different, however much PM Erdogan wishes to drag Nato into doing his dirty work, have more kids from Estonia, Britain and Poland die in the cause of islamism.
If Turkey's hot headed islamist government allows itself to pitch its army into Syria, then all well and good. Erdogan has my vote, and i'll cheer him to the last dead Turkish soldier. But why should the West get involved? We saw what a disaster was Libya, and Afghanistan.
Spyer is worried;
Jonathan Spyer: My own view remains that the United
States and its allies should engage closely with the rebels, identify
deserving clients and begin to arm and support them. This has not yet
happened to a significant degree and the result is the current
stalemate. It’s understandable that many Westerners feel that given the rise of
Sunni Islamism as a result of the downfall of secular Arab
dictatorships over the last 18 months, the US interest is to stay out.
Understandable, but wrong.
The US can either engage in the Middle East or disengage from it. The Obama administration appears to prefer the latter option.
But disengagement doesn’t leave a vacuum. Rather, it leaves a space
which is rapidly filled by advancing hostile interests – in the Syrian
case Iran and Russia, with China as the silent additional partner.
These forces are currently backing the Assad dictatorship all the
way. The Iranians, in particular, see the survival of the dictatorship
as a cardinal interest. Should Assad or his regime survive in some form,
this would represent a major strategic victory for the Iranians and
their backers. It would keep alive the Iranian ambition of establishing a
contiguous pro-Iran space from western Afghanistan to the Mediterranean
Sea.
As I have said before Syria is now the fault line in the muslim world, between the utopian zealots of shia and the sunni caliphate aspiring fanatics. They both have an ideal, they both hate the other so deeply that since Sadam Hussein was overthrown they have been killing each other by the hundreds daily.
The fault line that was between Iraq and Iran has moved closer to Israel, but it has also moved closer to Israel's major enemies of Turkey and Egypt now. Both those countries wish to bring about Israel's destruction and have recently begun to collaborate militarily, but they must first defeat the shia enemy (they aren't above provoking Israel with
naval exercises off Israel's coast as a sequal to the Mavi Marmara stunt however). So the sunni world will fight the shia and keep fighting. They will fight themselves to a standstill, and if sunni jihadists wish to flood into Syria in ever greater numbers via Attaturk airport then all to the good. The more they come, the harder Hezbollah will fight, likewise Iran.
Spyer believes that a stalemate is a bad thing, that "
Should Assad or his regime survive in some form,
this would represent a major strategic victory for the Iranians and
their backers."
And he misses the point. Stalemate means that the West's enemies bleed, lose treasure and suffer.
So long as Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon it is all to the good that
it emerges with some 'gains'. After all if Iran was defeated the now
almost wholly islamist sunni world would be free to turn its guns on
Israel. Whilst Iran believes its winning or at least not losing the
conflict it will expend ever greater resources to win this conflict with
the sunni world. Iran is the underdog in the sunni world. Iran has less than 100 million people as opposed to hundreds of millions of sunnis, 1 1/2
billion throughout the islamic world. Pakistan and Indonesia alone have more people than Iran. There's plenty enough glory for
both sides although Iran has much less scope to lose population with a smaller hinterland, and Spyer wishes to break the stalemate?
Sometimes just looking strong and keeping out of other
people's squabbles is the wisest option. Obama's setting the USA to help
the islamists win will not bring any dividends to the USA in the long
run, just as helping secular elements of the FSA will likewise do
little if any good, especially for Israel. There have not been any
attempts by the FSA to show any lessening of animus for Israel.
Were the secular FSA to win they would be just as hateful towards Israel
as the Baathists were.
And of course, when the islamists
win, of whatever flavour sunni or shia, the seculars in the FSA will be
slaughtered. The facebook democrats in Egypt had their nose pushed out
just as the secular Mujahideen were slaughtered in their thousands after
they helped overthrow the Shah of Iran in 1979.
It is better to leave the different sides to fight
this out in their own good time. As Spyer keeps saying, the FSA is
gaining in strength all the time. There is no need to hurry the process
but let things take their course. Syrians, Turks, the wider arab world
and international jihadists need to bleed just as did NaziGermany. As with the germans, only once
the horror of war has thoroughly wreaked its devastation on the region,
will its peoples forswear jihad and the racist murders of christians
and jews. Germany did not learn it in WWI, neither did muslims when fighting the humane opponent of Israel. Muslims will learn to abhor war whilst fighting each other, in the absence of the exercise of human rights or of any acts of human kindness.
As with Germany muslims and arabs sadly need to relearn
the meaning of war so that there will be peace for a hundred years. Rather than being a quick war, it should be allowed to burn
slowly and methodically, long enough for both shia and sunni to learn to
understand that there is no glory in war, no god who wishes for people
to kill each other, nothing to be gained through killing others purely
on account of their ethnicity and religion.
The evil of the man who wrote a treatise extolling war, murder, killings and the forced conversion of others will become apparent in the coming years of war, where those who extol jihad will be caught up in its depradations and will along with their families suffer unspeakably.
I wish it could be otherwise, but unless those who wage the war are allowed to suffer the consequences, there will be no end of religious wars directed against Israel and the West. Let those who aspire to barbarity and war suffer the consequences rather than those who aspire to humanity and to live in a modern civilisation.
As often has been the case in the past, arabs and their friends the jihadists find the silver lining for Israel in the otherwise dark clouds of the islamic winter that is descending over most of the region.