Saturday, 25 August 2012

There's no fool like an old Hirsch Goodman

 Goodman's first ludicrous statement is this:
"This is the time to use circumstance to bind the peace agreement, not excuses for undermining it."
 There have been euphemistic calls from across the political spectrum in Egypt to "re-negotiate" the Peace Treaty. Often the calls have been to simply tear it up.

President Mohamed Morsy has shown no interest in bolstering the peace treaty with Israel, but rather to increase his forces in the Sinai, including anti aircraft weapons and tanks.  All contrary to the peace treaty, and unexplainable in any other terms than to prepare the ground for a new conflict with Israel.
There is a formal peace treaty that binds the sides that could be interpreted with goodwill, or used as a club against the peace treaty itself. It all depends on what the leaders want. Morsy has to tread carefully between the expectations of the Islamists who put him into power, the terms of the peace treaty and continued American monetary and military support.
And Israel has to ensure that the peace treaty is not unilaterally violated, opening the potential for the unraveling of the accords altogether.

The arab and Egyptian press have been full of such 'violations' such as when Israel last year in  hot pursuit of terrorists who killed 8 Israelis killed egyptians soldiers who were firing at them. Nobody ever explained how it just so happened that terrorists wearing egyptian army uniforms managed to mingle with egyptian soldiers, to operate right next to them and carry out a deadly attack. Of course all the ire was directed at Israel rather than the terrorists.

Israel and Egypt both have inherent interests in maintaining law and order in Sinai. 
Israel certainly has, but Egypt has allowed the situation in the Sinai to deteriorate for years. The Egyptian view, also in Mubarak's time was that as long as only Israel suffers, then they'd turn a blind eye to terrror operatives working in the Sinai and smuggling rockets into Gaza. Only when Hezbollah sent 48 operatives to attack the Suez canal did Mubarak wake up. Even then he allowed hundreds of tunnels from Gaza to operated without checks as to just what the Gazans were importing.
There is the safety of American and international troops deployed in Sinai to consider, who are only there because of the peace treaty in the first place.
 This is interesting. The force is there to verify the peace treaty is being kept, i.e. that Egypt is not smuggling in forces as a vanguard in a future attack on Israel. The force has had nothing to say of Egypt breaking the provisions of the treaty. Which reminds us of UThants force in 1967 which abandoned their positions, leaving Israel in the lurch as soon as Nasser asked for a corridoor. And then there was the promised fleet to open the Suez canal up to israeli shipping, a provision from the 1957 agreement in which Israel agreed to relinquish the Sinai. Nothing came of that. And then there were the european observers at Rafah who fled into Israel as soon as Hamas began to threaten them.

Israel should know by now the value of international observers. They are a tripwire at the most, a sign of things to come. Other than that they have been as useless as the UN in Lebanon who go around closing their eyes to Hezbollah's arming of the south in contravention of Resolution 1701, their mandate under that resolution to confiscate weapons brought into the area. The Sinai observers have not seen fit to report publically the Egyptian violations of the peace treaty. In any case, their first priority being to look to their safety means they have been reducing their patrols to a point where they are effectively confined to base.

It can be expected that Egypt’s first non-soldier president will try to present himself as a responsible moderate, unabashed about his deep Islamic beliefs but, at the same time, committed to democracy, not unlike the leadership of today’s Turkey. Egypt, he can be expected to argue, is not part of the problem, but essential to regional stability. Undermining the peace treaty with Israel, it seems, is not something Morsy would logically want to do at this stage, though anything is possible.

Morsy and his Muslim Brotherhood have never had a commitment to democracy. Neither does the AKP under Erdogan. There are now thousands of political prisoners in Turkey. Turkey has the highest number of journalists imprisoned than in any other country in the world. Turkey has muzzled its journalists, undermined its courts and educational system and crippled its army with hundreds of ranking officers now in jail.

It is unbelievable that Goodman can make such ignorant statements.
He should watch the following two clips and then revisit the inanities he's been writing.

and Morsi's spokesman talks about taking Jerusalem:

Both sides need the peace treaty and the current situation in Sinai shows one reason why. 
Israel needs the peace treaty. Morsy doesn't. He needs money to stabilise his country before beginning his campaign of re-taking 'islamic' lands which in his opinion are unjustly occupied by Israel. We aren't talking of Israel's ancient homelands of Judea and Samaria ('West Bank') but of all of Israel, of Tel-Aviv, of Haifa and Jerusalem. For Morsy jews have no rights anywhere in the region. They must all leave or die.

Israel and Morsy’s Egypt have a lot more in common than meets the eye. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is a whole different kettle of fish compared to fragments of the organization in other parts of the Arab world. In Egypt the Brotherhood has traditionally advocated nonviolence and Islamic family values.
What a load of rubbish. The MB has been a violent organisation from its inception. The MB flag with its crossed swords should be enough to explain.

The MB founder said:

It is the nature of Islam to dominate, not to be dominated, to impose its law on all nations and to extend its power to the entire planet.”  Therefore, the Muslim Brotherhood opposes secular tendencies of Islamic nations and wants a return to the precepts of the Qur'an. The Brotherhood firmly rejects all notions of Western influences in addition to rejecting extreme Sufism as well. Brotherhood members organize events from prayer meetings to sport clubs for socializing.
The organization's motto: “Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. Qur'an is our law. Jihad is our way. Dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope.”
the Muslim Brotherhood not only condemned the US for killing bin-Laden in May 2011, they also facilitated the growth of al-Qaida. Abdullah Azzam, bin-Laden's mentor, came out of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood; Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin-Laden's deputy, came from the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood; Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, grew up in the Kuwaiti Muslim Brotherhood.
 The MB was for many year not violent in Egypt only because of the severe repression of the organisation over many years.
Morsy’s upcoming trip is to the US is a sure signal that he intends to stay on a pro- Western track.
 Rubbish. The Egyptian economy needs over $4 billion urgently before it grinds to a halt. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are being niggardly in coming up with the money as there are suspicions about Morsy, not least his cuddling up to Iran, seen as a mortal threat to those sunni countries.
"The right to vote, after all, is something we all hold dear and true."
Yes, but will Morsy ever go for elections again? His Hamas offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood is now years overdue for elections (as is Abbas of the Palestinian Authority). Democracy isn't about electing islamists in one time elections so that they can work to destroy secular society, ethnically cleanse christians and wage war against Israel. If Morsy decides to run for elections at a future date, it will only be if he is absolutely certain of winning. The MB will not relinquish power willingly.
This is the time to use circumstance to bind the peace agreement, not excuses for undermining it; to encourage Morsy to court the West, not fight against it; find workable solutions to the security problems in Sinai, not exacerbate them; and to wish Morsy well on his trip to America, not wish for his failure. 
The last thing the West should do is to work towards entrenching the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood makes has made no secret that it is about power. Morsy has moved quickly to remove the military as a limitation on his amibitions, puttin in an MB islamist general to head the armed forces. Morsy has just appointed 50 new editors of newspapers and has made no move to call a parliament into session.

The MB also makes no bones about its re-establishing a Caliphate, and does not disguise its enmity for Israel in its arabic publications.

My only hope is that Israel's military with whom Goodman has close links are not as fooled as he is. It is no more than a hope because the 'concept' comes very much to mind at the present, of a military establishment lulled into complaisance by misleading statements and information placed by the egyptians before the 1973 war to make the israelis believe that they had no warlike intentions.

Similarly now Egypt's defence minister might make the right noises about keeping to the peace treaty but Egypt's recent behaviour of infiltrating unnecessary weapons into the Sinai without coordination with Israel belies that.

And then of course there is Morsy's recent telling Egyptians that jihad and war is the only way. His spokesman was even more explicit saying that Jerusalem will soon be liberated.

No pleading or bending of Hirsch Goodman's knee is going to change Morsy's intentions for Israel. The only limits on Morsy are the preparedness of his army and the parlous state of Egypt's finances. When you can't buy fuel, your tanks can't roll.

Israel must prepare its defences because Morsy and his defence minister are preparing for the day that they can attack Israel.

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