Friday, 14 June 2013

Moshe Ya'alon proves his worth with refusal to be drawn into Syrian morass

A syrian tank was on the end of this rpg

Whilst europe and the USA are preparing to step  up their involvement in Syria as a reaction to Russia, Iran and its proxy Hezbollah's increased intervention there, Israel is being much more circumspect.

Whilst providing humanitarian help to the wounded, Israel's defence minister Ya'alon recognizes that there are no good options in Syria, no side which would either come to an eventual peace with Israel, or just cease the state of war.
 “We don’t intervene, we do not interfere,” Ya’alon said in Washington prior to a meeting Friday with his US counterpart, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel. “Any Israel intervention might affect the side that we might support, not for its benefit,” he told the Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Ya'alon's comments about the side Israel supports seem designed to keep the enemy on its toes. Israel can not support either of the main protaganists in the war. It is in Israel's interests to support the kurds, but they are far to the north east and are more relevant to Israel's struggle to keep Iran from nuclear breakout.

Man escapes-the tank went up like a torch

Like Arafat before him, Bashir Assad balked at signing a peace that would have returned the Golan Heights to him during Olmert's time as premier. Thank heavens! Israel without the Golan heights would be a much less secure place now that Al Qaidah and the Muslim Brotherhood are on the other side of the border.

Elsewhere it has been reported that the West fears Assad will with the help of his allies win the war.
Aleppo in preparation for an offensive to retake the city and build on battlefield gains that have swung the momentum of Syria's war to Assad and his Hezbollah allies.
Rebels reported signs of large numbers of Shiite Muslim fighters flowing in from Iraq to help Assad end the civil war that has killed at least 80,000 people and forced 1.6 million Syrians to flee abroad.
The move to a northern front comes as Syria's war is increasingly infecting its neighbors – Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel – and widening a regional sectarian faultline between Sunni and Shiite Muslims.
For the first time since the start of the uprising in March 2011, an Israeli minister suggested on Monday that Assad might prevail in the war, thanks in large part to support from Shiite Iran and the Lebanese guerrilla group Hezbollah.
That is most unlikely as Turkey and the arab world in the absence of the massive support needed from western government is intervening itself in supplying the rebels, even if that help goes only to sunni jihadists of various sorts.
The USA and the West should copy Israel and remain out of it, as they have little to gain, and will only be accused later by the winning side of the usual complaints such as imperialism.

Turkey and arab countries are in any case stuffed with western weapons of all sorts, Libyan weapons have leaked all over the region, and even Egypt is now getting in on the action with the muslim brotherhood's calls for egyptian citizens to play jihad in Syria.
During a meeting with Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, leading Sunni Muslim clerics from various countries issued a call for jihad against Al-Assad and his allies, condemning the conflict as a "war on Islam."
 The arab world now recognizes the threat that Iran poses to arab regimes throughout the region. The more they realize that the West is not interested in stepping into the syrian maelstrom, the more likely they will be to use the toys they've been buying for years to stem iranian aggression.

Of course Iran and the arabs know full well that their shared goal of the destruction of Israel recedes whilst muslims are slaughtering each other, but there is little they can do about it other than lob the odd shell at Israel from Gaza, Lebanon or Syria.

Netanyahu talks tough just so that both sides, which have their hands full, count the cost before provoking Israel at the same time:
 Netanyahu's fingers are itching. Whoever saw him this week making threats at the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, saw a leader with his finger on the trigger......
 For two years now, the Arab world has been burning and destroying itself without any external intervention, and this could continue for many more years.

So why should we, because of a few restless generals and a trigger-happy prime minister, give them a reason to unite around the only common denominator they have – hatred towards Israel? Let them kill themselves quietly. The Lebanon-bound weapons are dangerous, but are not an existential threat. It's not the Iranian bomb.
The writer is wrong. Netanyahu like his defence minister is no fool. They are both simply setting the bar high for an agressor. Israel after the disastrous years of Barak now wants its enemies to count the cost of provoking an Israel that is prepared to vigorously defend its interests.

And this policy is working very well in Gaza, with Hamas reigning in other militias. Whereas Sderot did not know one night of peace in 10 years, now very few missiles are being fired at it. We know that Hamas is preparing intensively for the next round, but until the next hostilities, the border communities are at least getting a chance to recover, to emerge from the bunkers and live a normal life. Gone are the sabbath morning firings of missiles to catch people in synagogue, or the daily missile terror attacks as children go to or leave school.

The generals do indeed get restless, and it is for the political echelon to reign them in, and that is happening, thankfully. There is no interest in Israel getting involved in Syria.

The USA and Britain might follow suit, but somehow they never do.


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